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Episode 1047: The Email Answers You Ordered
Date April 20, 2017 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Jason Benetti, Andrew Triggs, Addison Reed and Odubel Herrera, C.B. Bucknor’s bad day, and Starling Marte’s suspension, then answer listener emails about the nature of fandom, dominance against a division rival, a billion-dollar payroll, Eric Thames’s hot start, transplanting an NPB team, catching up to favorite players from childhood, Mookie Betts’s strikeout-less streak, an RBI record, an unusual replay-review scenario, an extreme shift suggestion, and more. Topics * Baseball fandom * Eric Thames * NPB to MLB talent comparisons * $1 billion payroll * Mookie Betts and strikeout-less streaks * Long term aging curves * Extreme shifts Intro Sonic Youth, "Eric's Trip" Outro Pavement, "Starlings of the Slipstream" Banter * Jeff's twitter interaction with White Sox announcer Jason Benetti. * Andrew Triggs has not allowed an earned run yet. * Addison Reed quick-pitched Odubel Herrera, who has been the slowest hitter in MLB this season. * C.B. Bucknor called an exceptionally bad game in the Nationals at Braves game. * Starling Marte was suspended for 80 games. Email Questions * Jacen: "Your talking about The Wave made me realize that being a fan of the sport is not unusual despite not feeling passion for a team. I get grief at games for wearing a baseball cap for a team not playing because I am there for the game, not a team. I own a cap for 75% of the teams, should I feel bad for wearing a cap not matching a team on the field? * Kyle: "Yesterday I found myself thinking about Chris Truby for some reason. He spent most of his short MLB career with the Astros during their NL era, and hit .265/.345/.612 against the Brewers but just .229/.262/.374 against everyone else. By OPS, he was roughly the equivalent of Mike Trout against the Brewers and Mike Zunino against the rest of MLB. So my question is this: How good would an MLB player have to be against a single division rival to make it worth it to keep them on the roster for an entire season despite the fact that they're going to be below replacement level for 140 other games?" * Andrew: "What and/or how is Eric Thames?" * Tanner (Buffalo): "Eric Thames has been worth a major-league-leading 1.4 WAR according to FanGraphs and also leads the majors in the following categories: SLG, wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and ISO. This surely isn't sustainable, although one can hope. Given that he signed a 3-year, $16M contract in the offseason and the free agent cost of a win is ~$9M (I think), how long do you think it'll take until he's "worth" the contract that he signed?" * Eric: "Let's say we promote last year's NPB championship team to MLB as a 31st team. You are made Co-GMs, and you're told that you can remain in MLB as long as you don't finish with the worst record in baseball (that team will be demoted). The promotion happens right after the MLB world series, and assume you get to bring every member of the NPB championship team with you for the full season. The team will be based in the US, so they won't have to deal with an insane travel schedule. Let's say they become the Portland Nippon-Ham Fighters, and they join the AL West with a reasonably balanced, west-coast heavy schedule. You can leverage free agency, trades, the Rule 5 draft...everything available to MLB teams from ~November onwards. - What approach would you take to building the team? - What are the odds you could finish better than 31st in 2017? * Brian: "Say I am a Saudi Arabian Price, interested in buying out the Miami Marlins in 2017 before the 2018 free agent class. I am able to afford a 1 billion dollar payroll and am going to be acquiring Kershaw, Harper and Machado in winter 2018. The thing is that I only have average knowledge of the game and want to be the general manager and manager of the club. I don't have the best leadership qualities and can be hard to work with. How long before the team wins a championship or implodes from my lack of intangibles?" * Scott: "Not sure this will hold up, but that's a neat line from Hanley (he was 0-for-4 with 3 RBI). I wonder what's the most RBI in a game by a player who failed to get a hit?" * Ben: "Think of your favorite position player you watched when you were growing up. Now, how many years would it take from now for you to out-WAR him? Would you ever? Assume you're both starting 162 games, and treated as a normal, replacement level player. I assume he's 15-20 years older than you, and the obvious idea here is that eventually his skills will deteriorate just due to the aging process." * Jon: "Suppose that, during the course of an inning, after a very unusual play followed by a controversial challenge and then umpire review, a play that seemed to end with 2 outs only ends in 1. But after the next out, everybody walks off the field none the wiser. No one recognizes anything for at least a few innings, but the video team that was batting at the time points it out before the game's end. What happens next? Could this ever actually happen, if individual players can forget the number of outs?" * Evan: "Imagine there's a slow, pull-heavy right-handed batter at the plate and a fast-running right-handed pitcher. Could it ever work to shift the entire infield and have the pitcher cover first base on all ground balls? If the pitcher always immediately runs to first, he will definitely beat the runner (he's got ~63 feet to run instead of ~92). But could he beat him with enough time to turn around and catch?" Stat Blast * Mookie Betts has not struck out this season, and last struck out on September 12, 2016 (excluding playoffs). * Among all active players, what is the longest career streak of games without a strikeout (minimum 1 PA)? Betts is the leader with 29 games (current streak). * Juan Pierre made 31 straight starts without a strikeout. * The most consecutive games (not starts) without a strikeout is 34, by Lenny Harris in 2001. Notes * Jeff, on fandom: "Don't murder because of sports." * The Brewers did not scout Eric Thames in person before offering him a deal. * Lenny Harris is mentioned again, a common feature of Jeff's early episodes. He first was mentioned in Episode 1006. * Ben Petrick in September 2000 had 4 RBI without a hit. * Ben does not think he would catch up in WAR to his first favorite players, John Olerud and Bernie Williams. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1047: The Email Answers You Ordered * Starling Marte Might Be the Best Baseball Player Ever Suspended for PEDs by Ben Lindbergh * Sox outfielder nearing 21st-century record for PA's without a K by Anthony Castrovince * Luke Appling homerun at age 75 Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes